In case you couldn’t tell from the glut of shows today reviewing what people wore as they walked down a red carpet, the 84th Academy Awards were Sunday night. If you’re a loyal reader, you’ll remember that last week I contemplated whether or not I could predict who the Best Picture Oscar winner would be based on clues from social media.
I looked at the number of fans each nominated movie had on Facebook, and the engagement rate of their posts once the announcement of their nomination was made. Lastly, we took into consideration the number of mentions on Facebook of the nominated films that also included a mention of “Best Picture” or “Oscars.”
With the above chart, we get an entirely different story. “The Tree of Life” takes the award for being the most engaging nominated film, with “The Help” nearly coming in dead last! The last place film, “Hugo,” had not published a post since it was nominated for Best Picture.
When it comes to conversation on Twitter, “The Artist” took the top slot. The consensus around my corner of the office at Vitrue was that “The Artist” would walk away with the Best Picture Oscar, and that Twitter is the most likely predictor of the outcome due to its being the social network preferred by Hollywood.
In the above chart, I took the rankings of each nominated film on a scale of 1-9 and added them together. This gave us yet another top Page, that of “War Horse.” But notice who’s in that #2 slot, “The Artist.” It was the only nominated film with two top-2 rankings. More compelling evidence for an eventual win.
These metrics were all well and good, but as we found out if we had the stamina to stay up late enough, the actual winner of the Best Picture Oscar was indeed “The Artist”. This shows that Twitter can be a leading indicator of Oscar Success, which could come in handy for any future office pools.
- It is not common for a brand to have success in all aspects of social media. But being especially excellent at one while remaining well-rounded in the others can be a good strategy.
- Twitter appears to be a better leading indicator for film awards than Facebook.